lördag, oktober 21, 2006

Iraq lost for democracy?

At this point even the American president, George W. Bush, admits that the situation in Iraq is far worse than he earlier has declared.

The comparisons with Vietnam is used by a large number of Americans and even Bush agrees on that there are some similarities with some of the attacks from viet cong and the attacks by opposition groups in Iraq.
Even if the military attacks and resistance movements in these countrys did not or do not seem to gain any military victories, they gain moral support. The also win the propaganda war among some groups in their society and abroad.

The losses of American soldiers increases and this makes the public opinion in the USA more and more negative towards the war.
We can however see that even purely military the opposition groups gain ground in Iraq.

Bush have also declared that he is dissatisfied with the present government in Iraq and some commentaries state that there are people within the American government who wants to see the former prime minister in power again, the same one who was ruling under Hussein.

A split into three countries - one with the Kurdish people, another with the Sunni groups and a third with the Shiites - is maybe the solution to the current situation in Iraq?
How this will be accomplished is written in the stars.

The most likely scenario however is a full scale civil war and this would lead to a even greater conflict as it most likely will include other countries in the region and also countries with great interest in Iraq because of the oil or for other geopolitical reasons.

(Copyright picture Iraqian flag taken from: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/flags/large/iz-lgflag.gif)

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